(Sept-Oct. 2008 GroundSwell)
DEATH BY DEBT STRANGULATION
By Edward J. Dodson, Cherry Hill, NJ
(The following power point presentation was made July 10, 2008 at the
Council of Georgist Organizations conference, at Howard Johnson?s Plaza KCI,
Kansas City, MO.)
Preliminaries
(In response to an audience question about
the role of the Federal Housing Administration in the housing crisis, Ed Dodson
offered the following comments.)
There is a point of view that FHA was created
to help lower income households to obtain houses at affordable prices.
However, as housing prices have increased and as household incomes have
increased, FHA argued that to diversify the government?s risk, FHA needed to
insure borrowers with higher incomes and better credit profiles. FHA got
the desired authority to provide insurance on higher loan amounts to higher
income households. That diversified the risk. On the other hand, it
is also true that the greatest volatility in housing (that is, in property)
values is probably on the higher side.
If you are in a neighborhood with property
values of $60,000 the housing prices might not go down at all. But with
housing prices of $250,000, when housing prices start to come down, they might
come down considerably. Thus, making or insuring loans at the higher end
of the market exposes them to greater loss per incidence.
There are 115 million households in the United
States, roughly 65% of whom are home owners. Thus, 75 million households
live in the houses they have the deed to. So long as they have employment
and income, they will make their payments even if housing prices fall and keep
falling. Most people view housing as shelter and not an investment, and
most people want to stay in their home and their community. Even though
they might live in a house for which they paid $300,000 that would now sell for
$260,000, they will keep making payments on it.
This is getting
to the heart of the problem.
DEATH BY DEBT
STRANGULATION
Slide 1: The Consequences of Becoming a Society Perpetually in
Debt
For the first time since the Great Depression
of the 1930s, an overwhelming majority of households in the United States have
no liquid savings. We are drowning in debt, with foreclosures and
bankruptcies at record levels. This presentation discusses some of the key
reasons ? the ?triggers? ? that have brought us to this precarious
position.
Many households live perpetually in debt.
This is a problem exacerbated by the aggressive marketing strategies employed by
mortgage lenders, which caused the mortgage meltdown and our housing
debacle.
2. and 3. Creation of the Money Market Funds
The first money market mutual fund was
created in the early 1970s. From assets of $300,000 in 1972 this fund grew
to $390 million in just three years.
By 1981 the assets of all money market mutual funds
had grown to approximately $80 billion.
At the same time, interest rate ceilings on their
lending prevented Thrifts (the savings and loan associations and savings banks)
from paying competitive interest rates on deposits. Every time market
interest rates increased, more and more deposits were withdrawn by consumers for
placement in instruments with higher rates of return. Within a few short
years many of the nation?s Thrifts faced insolvency.
Finally, in 1980, the Depository Institutions
Deregulation and Monetary Control Act removed many of the distinctions
between different types of depository institutions and ultimately removed
interest rate ceilings on deposit accounts.
An additional ?reform? was an increase in the
deposit insurance limit to $100,000 from $40,000.
4 .and 5. Central Bank Policy Shifts
With his Presidency plagued by rising inflation and
recession, Jimmy Carter (reluctantly) appointed Paul Volcker chairman of
the Federal Reserve Board in 1979.
Volcker?s challenge was to use the Fed?s
powers to bring down inflation, even as the economy continued to experience an
unprecedented drift into stagflation (that is, rising inflation and high
unemployment occurring simultaneously)
The Fed shifted its focus from stabilizing
interest rates to managing the money supply.
The Fed?s board was convinced by economist
Milton Friedman that steady, predicable growth in the money supply would be the
key to stable and minimally-inflationary economic growth.
The Fed allowed interest rates to rise, which
dramatically curtailed access to credit but gradually brought inflation under
control.
6. and 7. Interest Rates Climbed While the Economy Was
Pulled Into a Recession
Tight credit and inflationary expectations drove up
interest rates as the Carter Presidency came to a close.
During 1979 and 1980 the Federal Open Market
Committee, under Volcker's leadership, abandoned efforts to control interest
rates and tried to meet strict money supply growth targets, an objective that
proved impossible given the global nature of currency markets, the amount of
U.S. dollars in foreign hands, as well as other technology and policy
limitations.
By December 1980 the prime rate of interest
hit 21.5 percent.
8. Reagannomics Supply Side Rhetoric and Upward Weatlh
Concentration
Ronald Reagan?s election in 1980 ushered in
the removal of many regulations on business, a significant lowering of tax rates
on capital gains and on high marginal incomes.
Price controls on fossil fuels, which
hampered the delivery of supply, were also eliminated. Jack Kemp had
become friends with a Wall Street Journal reporter named Jude Wanniski,
who had met Art Laffer, an economics professor at UCLA who thought it
would be possible for the government to gain more revenue by lowering marginal
tax rates. This, he argued, would encourage people to invest in capital
goods creation and jobs creation. Kemp sold the idea to Reagan. The people
at the Treasury bought into the theory. Some columnists bought into the
theory. And, Reagan basically accepted the idea -- for a while.
Supply-side economic theory as promoted by
economist Arthur Laffer was partially adopted, on the prediction that lower tax
rates would stimulate economic growth and thereby yield increased revenue to the
Federal government.
Reagan?s tax policies ignored any distinction
between earned and unearned income flows, allowing investors to choose options
where the highest rates of return could be obtained regardless of the true
economic implications.
To achieve the expected supply-side results, the
Reagan administration pushed through a reduction in marginal tax rates on high
incomes. Unfortunately, Reagan was also a committed anti-communist.
So, he went about spending on the military at a level the Soviet Union could not
match without self-destructing.
Some years after this Art Laffer said Reagan did
not realize there were two sides to the supply-side ideas. Government spending,
he said, had to be brought under control to keep pace with economic
growth. Instead, under Reagan government spending went way up. When
revenue needs were not being met, more traditional economists in the
administration pressed for an increase in tax rates.
9. Reaganonimics: Supply Side Rhetoric and Upward Wealth
Concentration (continued)
Reagan, a committed anti-Communist,
spearheaded huge increases in defense spending even as the lower tax rates took
effect.
The result of these policies was a $41 billion
Federal deficit in 1981, rising to $64 billion in 1982.
The U.S. economy slid deeper into recession, with
official unemployment climbing to 10.7 percent in 1982 (but real unemployment
certainly much higher).
The top marginal tax rate on individual incomes was
reduced from 70 percent to 28 percent. The corporate income tax rate was
reduced from 48 percent to 34 percent. Individual tax brackets were
indexed for inflation.
10. Reaganomics: Supply Side Rhetoric and Upward Wealth
Concentration (continued)
Most of the poor were exempted from the
individual income tax. The federal poverty level would not be enough to really
provide a subsistence living. I don?t know what it was in 1985, somewhere
around $15,000.
(A person in the audience commented: It
was less than that. In 1980 it was about $10,500. And it was about
$15,000 in mid-1980s, and that was median poverty for a family of four. )
The experts had no sense of what it
really cost to live. Tax benefits and tax subsidies were ended for
specific investments that actually produced capital goods and created
jobs. The Reagan administration did away with investment tax credits from
1981 to 1985; their idea was that by lowering tax rates the people would have
income to invest and they would invest it in job creation. What happened,
of course, is that those with the disposable income invested in speculation,
mostly in the stock market and real estate and land markets as opposed to
investment in job development.
At the same time, specific investment
incentives approved in 1981 were gradually reduced in each subsequent year
through 1985.
The unforeseen result was that a high percentage of
increased after-tax income was channeled into speculative investment in the
stock market and in real estate rather than direct investment in
employment-creating production of capital goods.
11. Reaganomics: Supply-Side Rhetoric and Upward Wealth
Concentration (continued)
By November 1982 well over nine million
people were unemployed, the highest number since the Great Depression.
17,000 businesses failed, the second highest
number since 1933.
Countless farmers defaulted on mortgage
loans, went into bankruptcy and lost their land.
Homelessness escalated, estimated in a 1984
study by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Affairs to be between
250,000?350,000 persons.
Low-income families began to experience
homelessness because of declines in the availability of publicly-subsidized and
other low-rent housing units.
Take away investment tax credits and you
don?t get housing for lower end households. Money moves into where profits
are, and profits are only generated in low income housing because of tax
credits and other types of subsidies.
12. and 13. Thousands of Mainstream Financial Institutions
Failed
Negative spreads resulted in losses of $4.6
billion in 1981 and $4.1 billion in 1982.
From 1980 through 1983, 118 S&Ls with $43
billion in assets closed their doors, costing the FSLIC* an estimated $3.5
billion to make depositors whole.
Banks were facing portfolios of fixed rate assets
on their books, while their cost of funds went up. Then, many of the
thrifts suffered by mismanagement. If they were to sell your assets in the
secondary market, they would have to do so at steep discounts reflecting the
difference between current market yields and the interest borrowers were
paying. The banks were not yet subject to regulatory requirements to mark
assets to market value on an ongoing basis. What they were permitted to do
was to sell their loans but amortize the losses over the remaining life of those
loans. Without this accounting trick, many more thrifts would have had to
close their doors.
The thrifts were hampered also because they were
still restricted to making fixed rate mortgage loans subject to
limits on the interest rates they could charge. It was about 1983, three
years after they were in the red, and many had already failed, before they had
the chance to issue Certificates of Deposit and usury laws were removed.
14. Thousands of Mainstream Financial Institutions
Failed (continued)
Before the end of the financial crisis, more
than 1,000 Thrifts failed.
Economist John Kenneth Galbraith
described the situation as "the largest and costliest venture in public
misfeasance, malfeasance and larceny of all time.?
It was serious. I was temporarily
moved from my job responsibilities at Fannie Mae into a new department that
evaluated the portfolios of failed thrifts. We would review the
borrower creditworthiness and the property appraisals, then repackage these
loans and try to sell them to investors on behalf of the Resolution Trust
Corporation, the Federal entity that was established to dispose of the assets of
failed thrifts. Speculators made a bundle on a lot of this stuff because the RTC
was not funded or staffed to handle the volume of assets that came pouring
in. This included half-finished construction projects on condominiums and
office buildings.
It is worth stating that they did a
pretty good job of making good residential mortgage loans. The problem was
they had these loans on the books that were overvalued and then went out and
made new business loans to small businesses or mortgage loans on income
producing properties; and, here, they made a lot of bad decisions in order to
get paper profits. When you book loans with an interest rate of 20-21% and
the loans perform, you are pulling your company out of the red. However,
too many of these loans were poorly underwritten, many did not perform, and the
thrifts ended up becoming insolvent.
15 Thousands of Mainstream Financial Institutions Failed
(continued)
Deregulation permitted mergers and
acquisitions, creating mega-bank holding companies.
European and Asian banks entered the U.S. market as
major players.
(Ed Dodson responded to a question from the
audience as to who was the largest mortgage lender in the United
States?)
When I left Fannie Mae in 2005, Countrywide
Funding was our number one seller. They sold us more mortgage loans
than anyone else in the country. Behind Countrywide were J.P.
Morgan/Chase, Wachovia Bank, HSBC, and the U.S. subsidiaries of the Bank of
Australia and Bank of Scotland. Our real estate market was being financed
by banks all around the world.
16. and 17. Prolonged High Interest Rates
Brought Down Land Prices by Creating a Huge Inventory of Unsold Housing
Units
As rates came down after 1983, a ?window of
affordability? opened.
The housing market recovered and resumed an
upward climb.
The window of affordability did not remain open for
very long, of course, because market forces capitalized the lower interest rates
into higher land prices. Another aspect of the housing market is, as
economists say, housing prices are ?sticky downward.? Do you think this is
the case?
(Ed Dodson responded to a comment from the
audience that people who have to must sell at a loss.)
If you have a job and steady income, you can
test the market by putting your house up for sale. If you do not get an
acceptable offer, you just pull your house off the market and wait for prices to
climb back up. This strategy does not always work, of course. A lot
depends on the strength of the local economy and the stability of your
neighborhood. A builder cannot do this because the housing unit is
inventory, and the builder generally finances the construction. So, when a
builder breaks ground without a sales contract in hand with a buyer approved for
mortgage financing, the builder is taking on an enormous risk.
Builders burned in the past by downturns in
market conditions may not even construct model units. Today, they can
create virtual sample units on the computer.
One of the largest home builders in the
Northeastern United States is Hovnanian, which consistently undersells the
market. The reason Hovananian is able to do this is that they have been a
shrewd land investor. For decades they obtained options on land from
farmers and other land owners in suburban New York and New Jersey. They
let the farmers keep farming until they see a strong market for residential use.
As long as the farmer is farming, the assessor will continue to assesses the
land as agricultural.
When they finally construct
housing units, their cost base is much lower than most other builders. So,
they can offer the same product at a lower price and still make higher
profits. People line up on weekends waiting to get in to fill out an
application.
18. and 19. Prolonged High
Interest Rates Brought Down Land Prices by Creating a Huge Inventory of Unsold
Housing Units (continued)
Housing affordability was not uniform across
the U.S., and many markets remained soft.
Key factors were employment and household
incomes, household savings and the cost of land available for new housing
development.
Demographic trends contributing to modest
improvements in household income included increasing educational attainment and
a dramatic increase in the number of women employed full-time in higher earning
positions.
These trends were countered by an ongoing
decline in higher-paying manufacturing employment of unionized workers.
20. and 21. The Secondary Mortgage Market Responded to the
Need for Liquidity and Uniformity
The rising cost of funds for financial institutions
affected the two GSEs as well, who held large portfolios of low-yielding, fixed
rate mortgage loans.
New options were needed to generate fee
income, offset low-yielding assets and raise capital.
22. The Secondary Mortgage Market Responded to the
Need for Liquidity and Uniformity (continued)
The first major innovations were mortgage
loans that allowed for periodic adjustment in the rate of interest, tied to U.S.
Treasury debt and other indices.
For consumers, the benefits depended on how
and when rates could adjust and whether they had the income to handle increases
in monthly payments.
The vehicle that allowed the secondary market to
dramatically expand was the issuance of collateralized mortgage obligations
(CMOs), first introduced in 1983 by Fannie Mae.
CMOs countered prepayment risk for investors
that occurred when interest rates were falling and borrowers refinanced to lower
rate mortgage loans.
CMOs created classes of securities that
offered principal repayment at varying speeds, so that investors were able to
acquire an interest in cash flows with advantageous accounting tax
implications.
The secondary market ? primarily Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac -- was created to provide liquidity to savings banks and
commercial bank. However, when interest rates were relatively low and
stable, the volume of loans sold into the secondary market was steady at a low
level. So long as depositors were putting their savings into the thrifts
and commercial banks, they did not need to worry about matching the duration of
long-term assets with short-term (deposit) liabilities.
Then, in the 1980s, the volatility in the housing
and mortgage markets brought on several innovations occurred that made the
secondary market take off. One was the adjustable rate mortgage loan, with
rates that periodically changed based on some index (e.g., 1-year
Treasuries). Banks could make the loans without taking on the interest
rate risk. And, ARMs became a big part of the market while interest rates were
high.
When interest rates came back down, millions of
borrowers came in to refinance their mortgage loans into a 15- or 30-year fixed
rate mortgage. Although this reduced the interest income to investors, the
mortgage originators made profits from fees charged and for servicing of the
loans for the investors.
The second big change in the mortgage market was
securitization. Loans were pooled together as collateral for bonds (i.e.,
the mortgage-backed securities), offered for sale to banks, insurance companies
and other investors. Wall Street firms took on the job of marketing MBS to
their institutional and individual clients.
People trusted the strength of the MBS because
either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac documents and guidelines were adhered to.
A percentage of loan files were pulled to examine the loan documentation, the
credit decision and the property appraisal.
So, because of securitization banks got back
into the mortgage lending business in a major way. They now saw the
mortgage banking business as a great opportunity for revenue with minimum
risk. They would pay Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac a ?guarantee fee? for its
services, and the MBS would be rated as a AAA bond by the rating agencies.
23. An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the
1980s
In September of 1985 representatives of
the major industrial nations of the world met and agreed to coordinate economic
policy.
Tariffs and other restrictions on international
trade were gradually lowered.
The Japanese agreed to reduce taxes on imports and
to stimulate domestic demand.
The signatories also pledged to intervene in
foreign exchange markets in an effort to drive down a U.S. dollar widely
perceived as overvalued.
For the Japanese, they were experiencing a
major shift from a production oriented economy to one that acknowledged domestic
consumer needs, and that workers were demanding better housing, automobiles and
a higher living standard. For more than three decades after the end of the
Second World War, the Japanese people devoted themselves to rebuilding their
nation.
As markets have opened around the world, those who
are able to invest have increasingly shifted financial resources wherever
investment promised high rates of return. And, in the process, we
experienced dramatic increases in speculation.
24.
An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the 1980s
(continued)
On the 19th of October, 1987, the stock
market experienced its largest one day decline in history.
The Dow lost 22.6% of its nominal value, or $500
billion.
Investors pulled billions of dollars out of the
stock market and shifted to real estate.
The total investment in real estate had declined
because of high interest rates. High income earners who had wealth shifted
their money to the stock market. Prices were driven up even though not
supported by corporate profits and the overall economy. This was
also when economists were beginning to come up with computer models for
directing investment decisions.
(Ed Dodson responded to a comment from
the audience: Wasn?t there also a big divergence between returns on stocks
and returns on bonds? You said there were high interest rates.
People started running for bonds then.)
Looking for a safe harbor. In today?s
market, for example, because the stock market is so volatile, a significant
shift has occurred in favor of bonds, even though the yields may be
low. At least you are preserving principal (if inflation is running lower
than the interest rate being earned).
25. An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the
1980s (continued)
In 1988 the Japanese stock market reached
new heights, and by the beginning of 1989 accounted for over 40
percent of the nominal value of all markets worldwide (up from 15 percent in
1980).
Land prices, particularly in and
around Tokyo, doubled between 1986 and 1990.
Residential property prices in Tokyo rose by
roughly 70 percent in 1988 alone. Commercial property rose by 80 percent
in the same year.
Now, how does any company acquire land,
produce goods and services, and grow their profits with those land prices?
Today if you look at the Japanese companies that were struggling to maintain
profit margins, they are moving offshore. Moving facilities to Korea and
Singapore and Indonesia and Mexico and even the United States was their survival
strategy. The Japanese economy had reached the end of its period of rapid
growth and was now faced with the destructive character of its land
markets.
26. An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the 1980s
(continued)
Speculation in Japanese land markets, fueled by
bank credit, drove prices to the point where economic use of land became
impossibly expensive. Land prices in major Japanese cities, especially
Tokyo, began to fall during 1990, and were down by 20 percent by the end of
1991.
Japanese companies began to relocate production
offshore to rebuild deteriorating profit margins. Japan?s economy
entered a deep recession and its financial services sector faced
insolvency.
The Bank of Japan responded throughout 1989 by
tightening credit standards and raising the discount rate. The Japanese
Ministry of Finance issued new regulations reducing the amount of credit banks
could provide for land purchases.
The spill-over effects around the globe were
significant, as Japanese companies began a world-wide sell-off of assets in
order to raise cash.
Sales of Japanese-owned U.S. real estate -- mostly
hotels, resorts and office buildings ? returned only about 60 percent of what
the Japanese companies had paid for them.
Japan had this advantage in the market; it didn?t
have any defense budget. It didn?t have to worry about the Evil Empire and
defeating the Soviet Union and so it had the capacity to bail out its financial
sector without really crashing the economy, although parts of Japan have not
fully recovered from recession even today. There is a lot going on
here to indicate that the global economy is under stress and that Japan is not
an unusual case.
27. An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the
1980s (continued)
As the Japanese currency increased in value
against the U.S. dollar, exports suffered and profits in the manufacturing
sector fell -- 24.5 percent in 1991 and 32.1 percent in
1992.
Bankruptcies began to rise starting in the latter
half of 1990 and continued to escalate.
Countless real estate firms active in fund
management constituted more than half the corporate bankruptcies in 1991 and
1992.
Bond ratings for the ten largest Japanese financial
institutions fell rapidly beginning in 1990 and also continued to fall through
the first half of the 1990s.
28. An Explosion of Speculation Erupted at the Close of the
1980s (continued)
Beginning in late 1988, the downturn in rents
(i.e., leasing fees) generated by income-producing properties began to fall all
around the globe.
Property values fell in many regions of the
United States, in some cases by as much as one-third.
By 1989, the number of new homes constructed
dropped to 1 million, the lowest number since the Second World War.
29. The Clinton Administration?s Third Way
Delinquencies on consumer debt
reached 2.5 percent of outstanding loans in 1992.
Campaigning for the Presidency, Bill Clinton
told an audience at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania that
the economy hadn't really been working since the early 1970s, that the recession
had simply aggravated problems that existed long before George H. W. Bush took
office. "Even when the Bush recession ends," Mr. Clinton said, "most Americans
will find themselves worse off.?
Campaign promises aside, Bill Clinton
immediately adopted the economic policies of a fiscal conservative.
Not long after the election, Clinton
declared: "We're Eisenhower Republicans here. We stand for lower deficits,
free trade, and the bond market."
30. The Clinton Administration?s Third Way
(continued)
Between 1993-2000, the unemployment rate fell
steadily from 7.5 -- 4.0 percent, as measured by government agencies (yet, many
workers were, in fact, underemployed and experiencing declining incomes and
benefit packages).
The official inflation rate, reported to be
1.6 percent for 1998, ignored what was happening to land prices and the effect
on property prices.
Many economists attributed improving economic
signals to the maturation of structural changes in the global economic system
(changes that on the surface seemed to favor the United States).
Production of goods of high quality now came out of
countries with lower wage and lower land costs, establishing global prices
U.S.-based firms had to meet or lose market share.
31. The Clinton Administration?s Third Way
(continued)
The U.S. was absorbing large numbers of
unskilled immigrant labor who could not command high wages for their services,
allowing businesses to increase or at least maintain profit margins.
Global competition also weakened the
negotiating strength of labor unions, as heavy industry and manufacturing firms
faced with high labor costs and high land costs threatened to move to other
regions or other countries unless concessions were
made.
Things got better ? at least for some --
during the Clinton years. So, since they got better he took credit for
it. Being at the right place at the right time has a lot to do with what
happens in an economy. Between 1993 and 2000 we fell steadily from 7-1/2
to 4% unemployment as measured by government. Yet many households had two
adults working multiple jobs. A lot of doubling up occurred, young adults
continued living with parents.
(A person in the audience
commented: The statistics of government economists argue that
structural unemployment is meaningless. In 1948 it was listed
at 2%. Everyone said 5% is really full employment. The official inflation
rate was reported to be 1.6% in 1998. What about land prices and property
prices? We know the consumer price index is very flawed in terms of how it
treats land price increases. One of the dynamics here is that the
production of goods of high quality is not hinged to lower wage and lower land
costs. So we have a global price for what U.S. firms had to compete with.
)
We see many firms relocating employment
off shore in order to protect their profit margins. That, to my mind, is a
key ingredient of how decisions are made as to where to locate production.
I have profit margins to achieve and so I will move to wherever I can get those
profit margins. And relative land costs affect those profit margins more
than anything else.
32. and 33. Home Equity
Drives a Resurgence in Consumer Spending
A sustained period of low interest rates triggered
an explosion in the volume of home equity mortgage loans
34. and 35. Emerging Demographic Patterns
In 2006, as the first
boomers turned 60, personal savings was reported to be negative for the first
time since the great depression.
Most vulnerable to even minor financial
setbacks are an estimated 35 million people categorized as poor by the U.S.
government. Yet, controversy exists in how poverty is measured.
A Heritage Foundation report in 2004 highlighted
the facts that 46% of households labeled as poor are homeowners, 76% have
air-conditioning in their homes or apartments and more living space than the
average enjoyed by residents of many cities throughout Europe. The
majority of the poor in the U.S. also own other assets, including one or more
automobiles.
The primary reasons why some children are poor is
that they are part of families where the adults are not employed full-time or
not regularly employed or reside in single-parent homes; some 1.3 million
children are born out of wedlock each year.
Concluding Comments
Time did not permit completion of the
presentation. The following concluding comments were made to summarize the
overall situation.
We have just a few minutes left to get to the
bottom line of all this. We are not saving and people are highly leveraged with
credit. Household income is stagnant or declining for a large portion of
our population. Land prices are down, so homeowners are losing net worth
even though it was unearned.
Low interest rates benefited millions of
households who needed to borrow; but savers did not benefit and seniors have
been hit hard because of the loss in interest income. Alan Greenspan has
been given a lot of blame for the recession, and he deserves some, for
sure. As land prices (and, therefore, housing prices) skyrocketed, people
were able to borrow to remove equity from their property. However, because
of deregulation of the financial services industry, many unscrupulous
lenders engaged in predatory practices. If you pay somebody commissions
based on loan volume, they will make loans -- regardless of whether the
borrowers have the capacity to repay the loans or not. A whole lot of
mortgage brokers made a lot of money on the basis of fraudulent
lending.
It is a very complex system we have
developed over the last century and since the Great Depression.
Deregulation has its benefits and its consequences. The trend has been
upwards towards greater and greater household debt. The financial sector
has come up with reasons to allow people to take on more debt than historically
we would have allowed in the past.
Focus groups of women and minorities
explored the reasons why these consumers made use of mortgage brokers and
nontraditional lenders rather than going to the banks. People who have had bad
experiences with banks and expect the banks to decline their applications are
easy targets for predatory lenders. They are more inclined to use check
cashing places to cash Social Security checks or get a payday loan. All
sorts of circumstances cause people to borrow under conditions that are to their
own disadvantage.
The delinquency rates on subprime loans have
been 10 times higher than what one would expect because the subprime lenders
often looked at real estate loans as a profit center. If the homeowner
cannot pay the loan back, the lender would foreclose, resell the property and
recycle the profit.
The bottom line is I don?t know how
much worse it is going to get before it starts to get better. We are due
for another round of banking regulatory reform. Whether or not any of
those measures will have the desired effect of cleansing this beast I don?t
know. But there are still a lot of people who are suffering from the worst
predatory lending. A lot of seniors are being victimized by the
practice.